English local election results are not as definitive as Keir Starmer claims

Labour leader Keir Starmer was quick to claim on Friday morning that the local election results in England are proof his party is on course for an overall majority in the next general election. Maybe a little too quick, although it is understandable that he would try to land a narrative of a Labour triumph before Britain’s news cycle switched to the coronation.

Undoubtedly the results are terrible for the Conservative Party. It was on course to lose many hundreds of councillors by late afternoon, and perhaps even as many as 1,000 or more. That would be a shellacking every bit as bad as the party had feared. But that doesn’t mean all its lost seats went to Labour. The Liberal Democrats did particularly well.

While Starmer was clear in his assessment of what the local election results mean, the numbers themselves appeared somewhat less definitive. BBC projected that if the voting trends in England’s local elections were repeated across Britain, Labour would receive 35 per cent of the national share, the Tories 26 per cent, the Liberal Democrats 20 per cent and others 19 per cent.

Polling guru John Curtice of the University of Strathclyde had said in advance of the elections that Labour’s lead would need to be in double digits to prove Starmer was on course for Number 10 Downing Street. BBC’s projections suggest its lead is closer to 9 per cent. Close, but not quite cigar territory just yet.

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As the results rolled in, Curtice was asked again if he thought that Labour’s performance was good enough for an overall win in the general election next year. Maybe, he said, or maybe not. A lot depends on Scotland, where the Scottish National Party’s remarkable implosion is predicted to gift as many as 20 or more seats back to Starmer’s party in the next election. He may need them.

The local election results are clear in one regard: the narrative crafted by Conservatives recently that prime minister Rishi Sunak could lead them to a remarkable victory next year now seems deliriously optimistic. No amount of spin can conceal how bad the results are for the party, as it lost scores of seats on 2019 which was already a dismal locals showing, coming as it did in the dying days of Theresa May’s doomed reign. There is very little evidence of a Sunak bounce among voters.

[ English local elections 2023: Tories suffer losses as Labour and Lib Dems make gains ]

Leaving its overall share aside, there were other encouraging signs for Labour embedded deep in the results. The party showed it is capable of winning back votes in areas that voted heavily for Leave in the Brexit referendum. It won back control of councils in working class areas such as Stoke-on-Trent and Swindon, which suggests it might be able to rebuild some of its old red wall. It also won Medway in Kent, another Leave bastion, but this time in the affluent South East.

But of all the party leaders, the happiest following this week’s local election results may be Ed Davey of the Liberal Democrats. The party hammered the Conservatives in areas such as Bath & Somerset and Windsor, which may have the local Tory MPs, Jacob Rees-Mogg and former prime minister May, looking over their shoulders.

Extrapolating national trends from British local election results can be a tricky business. In 2017, for example, the Tories performed well in locals but two months later they lost their overall majority in the general election that followed.

A hung parliament now looks to be a real possibility after the next general election. The Liberal Democrats could even end up as the party with the balance of power, rather than the SNP, as many had presumed until now.

There is still much to play for, and plenty yet for Labour to prove.