If the No side were ice-cream they’d lick themselves; Leo’s US photo op balls-up

Story of the Week

Strictly speaking, the referendums on care and family happened last Friday, but seeing as it is a week on and we are still leading the paper with it, the fallout from the Government’s crushing defeat still reigns supreme. Indeed, three times out of five days this week we have led the paper with the story. The loss shows every sign of forming a durable relationship with the political system.

Will we still be leading the paper on it in a week? Probably not. Will anyone have to resign? No. Will it lead to really significant policy shifts or fundamentally destabilise the Coalition? Again, you’d have to think not. But it is hard to shake the feeling that the referendum results matter and carry political weight beyond the failure of the proposals themselves.

After those results, Ministers were probably relieved to be wheels-up on their Paddy’s Day jaunts. Given it’s Oscar season, picture the airport scene of 2013 Best Picture winner Argo, except leaving Dublin, not Tehran. Maybe with a runway pursuit by Ronan Mullen rather than the Revolutionary Guard.

At least nobody made a balls-up of any photo ops while they were on duty overseas. Oh.

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Bust up

Back to the referendum well for this one as a whole squadron of not-so-shy No voters emerged from within the Coalition, eager to reassure voters over the airwaves that they had, in fact, been on their side all along. Seanad leader Lisa Chambers was to the fore - just as she had been to the fore of a recent photo shoot, smilingly asking voters for a Yes-Yes, and was the subject of some harsh criticism from her Government Seanad colleagues.

Eamon Ó Cuiv and Willie O’Dea were also among the converts too but the prize has to go to Fine Gael Senators John McGahon and Garrett Ahearne, who jetted off to the Ireland-England rugby match rather than voting. You can’t score an own-try in rugby, but this was a political OG.

Banana skin

It may be almost three months away, but the contest for a directly elected mayor of Limerick is already shaping up to be one of the most entertaining political bunfights of the year. Just this week we had Fianna Fáil’s candidate (and former FG member) Dee Ryan uncomfortably revising her views of party leader Micheál Martin (previously described in her social media posts as #notaleader. Today: “Could not be more positive”.)

And the Social Democrats nominated councillor Elisa O’Donovan to run - squaring off against the Greens’ Brian Leddin. Leddin was previously forced to apologise to O’Donovan for calling her “unhinged” in a WhatsApp group. He apologised when this emerged in 2021, but when he wasn’t sanctioned, O’Donovan wrote to the Green Party calling it out for “double standards”.

The field looks likely to extend to ten or more candidates in the final reckoning, including Independents as colourful as John Moran, the former secretary general of the Department of Finance and sometime lobbyist. There will be more eclectic faces, and this race will be a banana skin for someone.

Winners and losers

Hard to look past the No side in the referendum for winners, but let’s pick out two in particular - Peadar Tóibín and Michael McDowell, who have had that ‘if they were ice-cream, they’d lick themselves’ look to them all week. And why not? They were a tiny minority in the Oireachtas but cleaned up on count day after hanging tough throughout. They kept at it during the week, haring after Roderic O’Gorman over statements made during the campaign. It may or may not be the start of a bigger moment for the pair, but the day is theirs.

As for losers, it might feel a little harsh to dump on Paschal Donohoe for not getting a job that he never explicitly sought and was never actually on offer, but the prospect of heading up the IMF slipped away for the Dublin Central TD this week.

It’s not a crushing blow, but it will remind people within and outside Fine Gael that amid multiple retirements and heading into election season, for the right job, their leading lights can have their heads turned.

The Big Read

Leo Varadkar has put a purposeful emphasis on Gaza during his engagements in the US as part of St Patrick’s Week, including delivering what Political Correspondent Harry McGee says may be his most powerful speech since becoming Taoiseach in 2017. Harry is travelling with the Taoiseach this week - read his take on what the rhetoric all means here.

Over the weekend, we’re bringing you an extensive profile of the cohort of back room advisers that make the Coalition tick. Carve out some time from your Saturday for that one.

Hear here

Surely not more on the referendums? Oh, go on. Wednesday’s podcast is a deep dive into the repercussions, featuring actual experts, not just journalists. In this clip, Jack Horgan-Jones talks about one of the big lessons of the referendums:

When it’s possible to push emotional buttons within the electorate, leverage a sense of uncertainty that can prove to be a pretty potent electoral force and can blow up a lot of your assumptions

—  Jack Horgan-Jones

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