Nick Clegg brings splash of Lib Dem yellow to jaundiced voters

Travelling to a primary school in Abingdon in Oxfordshire yesterday, British deputy prime minister and Liberal Democrats leader Nick Clegg warned western leaders not “to lower their guard” against Russian president Vladimir Putin despite the Ukraine ceasefire.

Few took much notice – including, no doubt, Putin. Worryingly for Clegg, few more took note of the reason for his Oxfordshire visit: the launch of his party’s five-point election manifesto pledge.

The commitments are worthy: the creation of a fairer society, a stronger and greener economy, additional money for the national health service, along with better schools staffed by qualified teachers.

However, five years of gruelling times in government have taught the Lib Dems some lessons: the list avoids clear, direct pledges such as the 2010 undertaking to end tuition fees that ended in disaster for the party when it agreed to trebling the fees.

Nothing on the list this time should limit the Lib Dems’ room for manoeuvre in post-election coalition talks after May 7th – assuming, of course, that Clegg’s army is mathematically significant.

Traditionally, the electoral map after a general election shows decent swathes of Liberal Democrat yellow across the west country and the Highlands in Scotland, though the seat tally gained can vary widely.

In 2010, the Lib Dems won 57 seats, a fall of five, it must be remembered, on the party’s previous total despite all the talk about “agreeing with Nick” during the frenetic weeks of the campaign.

Today the party has 56 seats, as a result of controversial Portsmouth MP Mike Hancock’s resignation of the party whip after he admitted “inappropriate conduct” towards a constituent who sued him.

Despite the yellow swathes on electoral maps, the party’s hold on the 10 seats it possesses in the west country is far from firm: five of them have majorities of fewer than 2,000.

In the past the party has gained locally from the support of Labour-leaning voters who vote Liberal Democrat because they accept that a Labour flag- carrier cannot beat the Conservatives.

This time such support will wither. Privately, however, the Lib Dems believe the Conservative vote will be split locally by defections to the UK Independence Party. Undoubtedly some Tory support will make that journey.

But the wider analysis is questioned, since the Lib Dems’ anti-establishment credentials – always useful in a region where non-conformism held sway for more than 150 years – has been damaged by its years in office.

Losses across Britain are inevitable. Privately, many in the party would bite the hand of any pollster predicting it will return seats in the mid-30s – a number that would make them relevant to the formation of the next coalition.

Retiring MPs

Clegg faces difficulties on every front, however. Eleven of his MPs are retiring, which always weakens a party’s ability to hold on to a seat – though the Lib Dems have been better than most at it.

However, Clegg’s post-election ability to manoeuvre depends not just on how many of his existing troops or their replacements take up places on the green benches of the House of Commons but rather on their political leanings.

Given a choice, Clegg would favour a new deal with the Conservatives. Most of his people would prefer a deal with Labour or, better again, an arm’s-length arrangement with it whereby the party can pick off individual victories without having to endure the costs of office.

Until now, Labour’s leadership has displayed a visceral loathing of Clegg, but the deputy prime minister, who represents Sheffield Hallam, is becoming a more attractive partner by the minute as the threat from the Scottish National Party looms closer.

For now, the Liberal Democrats worry about May 7th, rather than what comes afterwards. One poll puts them on 6 per cent – a 25-year low, behind Ukip and the Green Party. A British election study yesterday predicted it could win just one seat.

In 1997 the defining moment of election night came in the early hours when former Conservative defence secretary Michael Portillo lost his Enfield Southgate seat, subsequently prompting the question: “Were you still up for Portillo?”

In the hours before dawn, Clegg must worry that he could be the biggest casualty in May, even though Sheffield Hallam is a little piece of the leafy home counties transported into the midlands.

Labour has not placed the seats on its target list of 106. Nor has it has spent money or diverted resources into the constituency. And yet its candidate, Oliver Coppard, leads Clegg by three points in a local poll conducted by Lord Michael Ashcroft.