Latest polls show dead heat in British EU referendum campaign

After last week’s astonishing ORB poll showing Leave 10 points ahead, two new polls suggest the referendum campaign remains a dead heat as it enters its last full week.

This may help to ease the anxiety of Remain campaigners who have seen the momentum swing behind Brexit in the past two weeks.

Labour MPs return to Westminster from their constituencies each week with alarming reports from the doorsteps as many Labour voters say they will vote Leave in order to curb immigration.

Unless Labour supporters back Remain by a margin of at least two to one, Britain is likely to vote to leave the EU next week.

Former Labour leader and prime minister Gordon Brown, who is credited with a crucial role in the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, will seek to reassure Labour voters on Monday. And current Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, who last week measured his enthusiasm for staying in the EU at 7 out of 10, will step up his role in the campaign too.

Weakest link

Labour is widely viewed as the weak sister of the Remain campaign but its apparently disorderly and even discordant campaign may be the best option for reaching a fragmented electorate.

A London School of Economic study into voter attitudes suggests that demographic groups approach the referendum in such diverse ways that a one-size-fits-all campaign could be counterproductive. The research, sponsored by pollsters Opinium and PR company Lansons, show that voters who want to stay in the EU do so for wildly different reasons.

Younger voters not only value the benefits of free movement within the EU but have a strong sense of European identity.

Older voters say that what they would miss most about being in the EU is access to healthcare across the continent, EU consumer protection, and being able to bring anything back home from elsewhere in the EU.

Decide that day

The study suggests that up to 30 per cent of voters will not make up their minds how to vote until the final days of the campaign. Half that number will decide on the day itself.

The good news for Remain is that undecided voters are more sympathetic towards the arguments of the Remain campaign than to those of Leave. Even those who back Brexit are sceptical about the Leave campaign’s claims that leaving the EU would significantly cut immigration or that the EU will give Britain a good deal after it leaves.

Indeed, the survey of more than 3,000 voters finds that most are enthusiastic about being in a union with EU member-states such as Ireland and Germany – and, indeed, Poland. It is countries such as recently joined Romania and others such as Ukraine, which have no prospect of joining, that raise hackles.

Even though many of the fundamentals point to Britain voting to Remain – a position backed by the bookmakers – many on that side now fear the tide has turned against them. Most recent polls have been conducted online – a method that has favoured Leave – but two new phone polls are due out this week.

If they show a substantial lead for Brexit, all-out panic will set in at Westminster.