Future of Lib Dems appears dim

Monica Grady is the kind of Liberal Democrat Nick Clegg likes.

For years Grady worked to help land an object the size of a washing machine on to a comet travelling 40 times faster than a bullet 500 million kilometres away. But nothing goes to plan, and the Rosetta probe bounced off Comet 67P last November and flew back into space.

“For a few nervous hours we waited. And then it sent us back a signal. It had landed,” Clegg told his party’s Liverpool conference. Grady is “a card-carrying Liberal Democrat”, he proudly declared, the kind who gets things done, no matter the challenges.

In the weeks ahead, Clegg will need an army of Grady-like campaigners to keep his party in existence.

The Lib Dem’s pitch is simple: the Conservatives cannot be trusted to look after society’s weakest members; Labour cannot be trusted with the UK’s finances. The issue is not the message, but whether voters are prepared to listen.

On Friday, Clegg joked that he was surprised to see queues in the conference centre’s grounds when he arrived. It turned out that they were waiting to see singer Lionel Ritchie.

“I was tempted to go up and ask them if it was me they were looking for,” he said, with a slightly resigned chuckle.

For many voters, the door closed on the Lib Dems after it tripled tuition fees instead of abolishing them. The move was forced upon Clegg, but his party has never recovered from its ill-effects.

The party currently has 56 MPs. Losses are inevitable, a fact that even the most die-hard supporters accept. The issue is whether it will be drubbing or an annihilation. So far, the optimists believe they will come back with half of their existing number or a little more – enough to make them mathematically relevant in post-election haggling.

Collapse in support

Nationally, the party’s standing has collapsed, down to 5 per cent in some polls. However, its strength in previous bad times has been its roots in places where it has won, rather than where it has simply contested.

Detailed constituency polling from Michael Ashcroft reports that the Tories are leading in 10 Lib Dem-held seats and Labour in 10 others. By some readings, even these figures are optimistic.

Sampling in the West Country – the heartland of the old Liberal Party – indicates that support there has halved and below levels where seats can be held. Labour has reaped the benefits there, leapfrogging to become the second-most popular party. But it is the Tories who could win the seats because of the vagaries of first- past-the-post.

Still, the campaign proper has yet to begin. The public is not engaged, though there are signals that middle-ground opinion is growing wary of political instability.

This is where Clegg wants to put himself forward as part of the solution, not as part of the problem, reminding voters that the disastrous predictions about coalition in 2010 proved unfounded.

“We were told a hung parliament would be a disaster for Britain,” he said. “We were told that without a clear majority for one of the old, establishment parties, Britain would collapse into chaos.”

Today, however, voters are not facing a two-party coalition, but one involving three or four parties, or, most likely of all, a minority government ever in search of parliamentary votes.

Britain’s soul

Between now and May, Clegg will argue this is not just about late-night deals in the House of Commons, but about matters that will affect the very soul of the country.

“As the Conservatives and Labour veer off to the left and right, who will speak up for decent, moderate, tolerant Britain?” Clegg asked. “Ukip, the Green Party, Respect, the SNP, the DUP? What will Britain become if Cameron’s Conservatives or Miliband’s Labour spend the next five years begging for votes from that ragtag mob of nationalists, populists and special interests?”

Despite the difficulties, Liverpool was not quite a wake. But it could have been the preparation for one, where self-praise for the achievements of the last five years could be read as the opening lines of an epitaph.

The numbers were also down, partly because the membership has haemorrhaged since 2010, and because many stayed at home for a weekend’s campaigning.

In some quarters, however, the focus has already moved beyond May. Former party president Tim Farron, who fancies being the next Lib Dem leader, warned that the coalition with the Tories will tarnish the party “for a generation”.

Farron’s politicking irritated even those who would sympathise with his left-wing views, which many feel have not been evident in the party for much of the last five years.

And f Farron annoyed those who might support his view, he infuriated the leadership.

“I think his well-known ambitions would be better served with a little more patience and a little more judgment,” said Paddy Ashdown. “Tim is a very able guy, but judgment is not his strong suit.”

For the next two months, the Lib Dems need to hang together, lest they all hang separately.