Flawed worst-case Covid-19 graph defended by Johnson

Boris Johnson has defended his government's use of coronavirus statistics after it emerged that a graph shown during a Downing Street press conference last week was based on faulty data. The graph, introduced by chief scientific advisor Patrick Vallance alongside the prime minister, pointed to a worst-case scenario of 1,500 daily deaths by December 8th.

This warning that deaths could far surpass the peak of 1,000 a day during the first wave of the epidemic was part of the case for introducing a second national lockdown in England this week. But the projection has now been revised downwards to 1,100 a day and Downing Street admitted on Friday that the original graph had been wrong.

“We accept there was a mistake in plotting incidence intervals, which we corrected as soon as we identified it. There was no error in the underlying analysis. The consensus is that without action we will breach the first wave in terms of hospital admissions,” Mr Johnson’s official spokesman said.

Hospital admissions

“We have acknowledged the mistake which we have corrected and we will continue to try and provide data in the clearest possible way.”

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Speaking during a visit to the East Midlands on Friday, the prime minister said the mistake did not detract from the fact that hospital admissions were climbing fast and had increased by 25 per cent during the past week.

“The data is really irrefutable about what is happening in the country,” he said.

“The number of deaths alas is on an upward curve that is just unmistakable, more than any time since May, and the government has to act. That’s why we’re taking the steps we are.”

Britain reported a further 355 deaths from coronavirus and 23,287 new cases on Friday, lower figures than those reported the previous day. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that although the number of infections was rising, the rate of increase showed some signs of slowing.

Youth infection

The R rate remains between 1.1 and 1.3 but the ONS said new infections stabilised last week at about 50,000 per day.

"At a national level we are seeing infections slow across England and Wales but they are still increasing," said Ruth Studley, head of analysis for Covid-19 at the ONS .

“The level of infection in young adults and older teenagers appears to have levelled off recently. However, they continue to be the most likely to be infected despite increases in all other age groups.”

Conservative MPs critical of the lockdown view the ONS figures as evidence that the system of tiered restrictions that preceded it was already working before the government rushed into shutting down the country. Former chief whip Mark Harper described as deeply concerning the government's admission that the graph it showed at last Saturday's press conference was misleading.

“How many more graphs from incorrect overstated figures have been used to try to justify a damaging, one-size-fits-all national lockdown?” he asked.