EU debate will expose fissures in British society

MPs sitting yesterday on the terrace in the Houses of Parliament in the sultry heat of July could be seen occasionally flicking through images on their mobile phones of protesters throwing petrol bombs in Athens.

The images are manna from heaven for those who advocate Britain’s departure from the European Union, since they believe voters will only agree to stay in if the EU is seen as a force for stability, not chaos.

For now, the answer to that question in the minds of many is in the negative, while few would care much that the answer will have changed substantially by the time voters are asked to go to the polls – in late 2017 at the latest; but earlier, if possible.

Prime minister David Cameron, however, faces troubles on many fronts. The fragility of his 12-seat majority – despite the hyperbolic predictions that existed in May of Conservative hegemony – has already been exposed three times by a lack of discipline, or division in Tory ranks.

Equally, his demands for British-centred concessions from his EU counterparts provoked irritation during last month’s summit, when he was given the opportunity to briefly outline his plans at the end of dinner as the crockery was being collected.

Arguments, however, about stability can work both ways. So far, Cameron and chancellor of the exchequer George Osborne have used the Greek crisis to illustrate the fate from which they saved the UK five years ago. The claims are overblown, to put it mildly, but they are accepted.

Nevertheless, the Grexit crisis has invigorated the outers, who believe life on the ocean waves for a “free”, “independent” UK that is “able to set its own rules” – these are the words used – promises a Singaporean-style future of prosperity.

Immigration

However, the arguments possess contradictions: a free-trading UK will have to have a more open attitude to immigration, not less – not just when it comes to attracting fee-paying foreign students, but in all areas of life.

Rejecting the No arguments, some on the Yes side insist their opponents want the UK “to be Norway, or Switzerland” – who pay into the EU budget, follow most of its rules, yet have no say in the decision-making.

In fact, the demand goes much further: many in the No side want the UK to be completely outside the orbit of the EU, subject only to a free-trade deal – a desire that has myriad implications for Ireland.

However, the argument has a so-far unexplained flaw: if Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands and others can thrive in export markets with their industrial goods operating under the same EU trade deals as the UK, why has the UK failed to match them?

EU regulations

For now, complaints about EU regulations – echoed frequently in all walks of British society – are illustrated by unjustifiable interferences in daily life, with one council blaming “Brussels” for its decision to embark on a flurry of double-yellow line painting.

The complaints about “Brussels” may be less easy to justify when voters comprehend that some in the No camp – not all, but some – see a life outside the EU as offering open season on workers’ rights, environmental standards and other issues.

“They haven’t looked at it from the point of view of a woman hired as a shelf-stacker in Tesco in Doncaster, not at all,” argues one of those who will be prominent in the Yes campaign in coming times.

The debate to come will expose fissures in British society: the gulf between London and the rest; or the lack of faith of the powerless in those who were ceded, or who seized the right to rule, but often were found to be emperors without clothes.

Meanwhile, the geographical differences will be telling in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, while in England the EU is often seen as a socialist plot in the south, but a capitalist one the closer one gets to the Scottish border.

The arguments made in the past by many of those who will once again be at the forefront of the Yes camp will weaken their cause – particularly those made in the 1990s in favour of the UK’s entry into the euro. Simply put, they were wrong.

Cameron’s problem is maintaining unity within the Conservatives.

The deal he brings back from Brussels will not be as good as the one he is seeking, let alone match the demands of those in the ranks who want more fundamental reforms, or exit.

Even with defections, Cameron will get his EU deal past the Commons, though he may need Labour votes – assuming Labour does not spiral into a Eurosceptic phase under a new leader.

If Cameron does have to rely on them his credibility will be damaged beyond measure.