David Cameron needs England to beat Russia – but not by much

It is hard to imagine, at this point, that David Cameron has not been leafing anxiously through his Euro 2016 guide, checking for any further unsuspected booby traps lurking in the fixture list. What possessed me, he may be asking himself, to call perhaps the most important referendum in British history bang in the middle of the biennial binge of national liver-eating and self-loathing that the major soccer tournaments inevitably bring on?

Never in the field of sporting conflict, he may muse, might so much be owed by so many desperate politicians to so few pampered soccer stars. And while he may be uncertain as to which claret-shirted club – West Ham or Aston Villa – he supports in club soccer, he will have no doubt where his interests lie in the international arena.

The British referendum on the EU takes place on Thursday, June 23rd, one day after the end of the Euro 2016 group stage. On the Tuesday of that week, Northern Ireland take on Germany, a fixture with scope for an embarrassing result either way; and on the Monday, in the ever-expanding tournament, England play Slovakia, one of the more recent entrants to the ever-expanding European Union, in a game that, if it should end in defeat and elimination, could also spell Brexit.

Why so? Well, the potential effect of different results is something that is open to speculation and could be read several different ways, but when every nuance is taken into account what seems clear is that the Remain side in the referendum do not want voters heading into the polling booths in a lather of rage and disappointment. And nothing could exacerbate the current English identity crisis more surely than another humiliation in a European sporting competition where they have never enjoyed success.

As we know, the British are more possessive about the invention of soccer than they are of almost any other cultural accomplishment. It was said by the late Labour politician Denis Healey that, in the dying days of the colonial project, he was told by the high commissioner of Aden, Richard Turnbull, that once it had finally bitten the dust the British empire would be remembered for only two things, “association football and the term ‘f*** off’”. Both of these elements will be very much in play over the coming weeks, with failure in the first more than likely to lead to the triumph of the second.

Europhile Irish

Cameron, then, will be hoping that the Euros – unlike the euro – will make Britain feel so good about shared European ventures that it will vote to stay in the EU. He will want England’s youthful new team to show signs of finally eclipsing those worn-out images of the clean-cut, monochrome boys of ’66, a symbolic encouragement for younger, more pro-European voters to get to the polls in greater numbers than the backward-looking older generation.

He will perhaps, though, not want things to go so well that voters lose the run of themselves and start thinking Britain would do better on its own. With that in mind, a very hard-fought and narrow victory against Russia in the opening game would be in order, perhaps after going behind and feeling the fear.

The next game, against the Welsh, is more complicated. With Wales now showing signs of inclining towards Ukip, and presumably Brexit, Cameron will be hoping a demoralising defeat for either team can be avoided, perhaps with Gareth Bale showing his sophisticated European know-how in a hat-trick during an exciting 3-3 draw.

Then, as mentioned, a convincing England win against the Slovakians will be expected, in advance revenge for all those jobs that are supposedly threatened by EU membership.

Of course, Europhile Irish also have their part to play in creating the mood for a Remain victory. While Northern Ireland will be responsible for cheering up Brexitacious unionist voters by standing up to Germany, the Republic will have to be careful to do just well enough to conform to plucky sterotypes, while not showing up the Brits either on or (in a friendly, partying way) off the pitch – three draws and qualification for the knockout stages would fit the bill nicely.

To recap then: the dream scenario for David Cameron and all those who want Britain to remain in the EU would be for England to beat Russia, share a thrilling score draw with Wales and then hammer Slovakia. Wales would have to qualify for the knockout rounds too, along with the Republic, who would have to to do well but not quite as well as England. And it would also help if, two days before the referendum, Northern Ireland had dumped the world champions and European heavyweights Germany out of the tournament.

Not that much to ask, is it? The odds must be less than 5,000/1, unlike those pre-season ones on the new Premier League champions, Leicester City. And for any anti-Brexit Irish fans who find the idea of wishing England well in the group stages unpalatable, there is always the consolation that once the referendum votes are counted and the decision made, there will still be half a tournament left to play.

Irish fans can then revert to normality and get behind England’s knockout opponents, offering the prospect of the ideal outcome: Britain still in Europe, England out of the Euros.