British attempt at EU renegotiation will not be a simple matter

David Cameron had planned to be in Copenhagen this morning to meet his Danish counterpart, Helle Thorning-Schmidt, but he has had to cancel his plans because she called a general election yesterday.

It is proof, if proof is needed, that the British demands for a renegotiation of their European Union membership terms and conditions will run into the domestic toils and pressures of every other member state.

Predictably, Queen Elizabeth said that Cameron’s government would hold a referendum by the end of 2017, although he faces significant hurdles even to get the legislative providing for the referendum passed in the House of Lords.

Labour and the Scottish National Party want 16- and 17- year-olds to be able to vote, as they did in such numbers and so successfully in the Scottish independence referendum last September.

Amendments

Equally, the SNP will press for amendments demanding a veto for Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales, arguing that none of them should be dragged out of the EU because the English had so decided.

Cameron does not enjoy a majority in the House of Lords, which explains why so many Conservatives have warned that the UK faces a constitutional crisis if the peers try to block or interfere with the will of the executive.

However, the Liberal Democrats Lord Jim Wallace, who leads one of the largest groupings in the upper house, issued his own volley, making it clear that the House of Lords retains the “the right to say No”.

Wording

It has also emerged that the electoral commission – which has the power to rule on the referendum question’s wording – has made it clear that it does not want it to be held along with elections in Northern Ireland, England and Wales, and the London mayoralty next May.

The debate on the UK’s EU membership should take place with the “full participation of voters and campaigners, uncomplicated by competing messages”, it said.

A May 2016 timetable was always ambitious, but it was held out as a target by Conservatives to have an early success signed and delivered quickly in the life of the new parliament.

Left without a Copenhagen meeting, Cameron will, nevertheless, have noted signals that the Danes – who did not join the euro – may now be ready to increase ties with the euro zone, accepting regulation of its banks by the European Central Bank.

Cameron will today hope for some helpful comments during meetings with his Dutch counterpart Mark Rutte, in Amsterdam.

That will be followed later by a meeting in Paris with the French president, François Hollande.