Absence of feelgood factor curbs Ukip’s upward surge

Public meetings held by political parties are a minority interest in the UK these days; even fewer would attend them if they were held on a sunny Saturday morning.

But before 10am on Saturday, more than 500 people gathered in the Riviera Centre in Torquay, Devon, to hear UK Independence Party (Ukip) leader Nigel Farage. Some were loyal party members who had stayed over from the conference that ended on Friday. However, more than half, asked to identify themselves by putting up their hands, were not.

The Conservatives see Ukip as the home for its disaffected, leading it to become more Eurosceptic to try to get them back. In fact, the profile of Ukip’s voters is distinctly Labour, or even non-party.

Little more than 80 days remain before European Parliament and local elections on Thursday, May 22nd. For Farage, the contests will prove a defining moment.

Dampen effect
For weeks, the Conservatives, particularly, have insisted at every turn that Ukip will win the most European seats, in a bid to dampen the effect if that happens. In addition, the strategy keeps hope alive that Ukip will fail to do so – which would offer the chance afterwards to create the narrative that Ukip has peaked and is now in decline.

Farage could hedge his bets, leaving open the chance that he could fail to take the number one slot, but he knows that momentum is vital if Commons seats are to be won in the 2015 general election. So, instead, he has set it as the target without any ifs or buts, insisting Ukip will emerge “as the biggest threat” to the establishment” in modern times. The strategy is not without dangers.

Tailwinds
He enjoys some tailwinds, however. Most Ukip supporters concentrate first on immigration, rather than on the UK's European Union membership – even if the issues are linked.

Last week, figures showed that immigration numbers rose 212,000 – “216 homes a day”, said one Ukip MEP candidate – last year, dashing Conservative hopes that the number could be cut to 100,000.

Meanwhile, German chancellor Angela Merkel’s London visit highlighted the gulf between David Cameron’s EU renegotiation plans and his ability to bring them about.

Farage will be given a platform when he debates with the Liberal Democrats’ leader, deputy prime minister Nick Clegg, days before voting takes place. In the debate, he does not have to persuade Liberal Democrat-leaning voters. Instead, he can concentrate on Conservatives, Labour, or, just as importantly, those who do not vote at all.

Self-harming
However, Ukip self-harms. On Friday, one delegate was reprimanded at a fringe meeting – one from which they tried to bar the press – after he questioned a Muslim's ability "to be English". The habit continued with off-colour jokes during a comedy sketch about Poles and other foreigners at a conference dinner.

The party has placed former Conservative MP, Neil Hamilton – one found by his peers to have taken cash to ask questions in the Commons – in charge of its European campaign. And then there is the party’s slogan for the coming campaign: “Love Britain, Vote Ukip”, a direct copy of a British National Party 1970s slogan.

Because of a slew of past problems, Ukip candidates for the European and local elections have had to pledge that they have “no skeletons” in their backgrounds, but more issues undoubtedly lie ahead.

Ukip has come second six times in House of Commons by-elections. Yet, it has failed to convert support into victories, as the Liberal Democrats, for example, did frequently.

Illustrating his hunger for victories, Farage offered some “dog-whistle” politics, telling of his discomfort at being on a train to Kent where no English voices were to be heard.

Immigration
The tactics will offend many, but they do feed the fears of those who feel – some wrongly, others more justifiably – that they have lost out from post-2004 eastern Europe immigration.

Immigration is now debated, unlike a decade ago when the Conservatives’ Michael Howard tried and failed. Farage, helped by events, has played a significant role in that.

Ukip currently is favoured by up to one in five voters , according to polls – enough to win European seats, but not enough to take Commons seats under Britain’s first- past-the-post voting system.

On Saturday morning, Farage was watched at first hand by a new audience in Torquay, though the votes of most are probably guaranteed, judging by their decision to turn out to hear him.

It is the yet-to-be convinced neighbours and friends of those people – who hold some of the same views, but are uncomfortable expressing them to all bar a few – that Farage needs.

It is a truism in politics that people have to go beyond simple anger or disaffection if a party is to break moulds. People have to feel good about voting for it. Farage is not there yet.