Nicky English: Limerick deserved favourites and can stay ahead of improving Kilkenny challenge

After two years of pandemic championships, which were dominated by Munster teams, we have ended up with a crossover final between the provinces for the first time since 2019.

After a year in which Waterford were initially Limerick’s most threatening opponents, followed by Clare, whose near ‘unshakeability’ over three matches marked them as the champions’ closest rivals, we are down to the definitive ‘most difficult challenge’: the only one left, especially when that opposition is Kilkenny in an All-Ireland final.

The weekend of the provincial finals, there looked an obvious gap between the two and the Munster champions would have been cast-iron certainties to beat their Leinster counterparts. And whereas after the All-Ireland semi-finals, Limerick remain favourites, you couldn’t be as sure of the relativities.

How big was the gap now? Is there a gap? Like a lot of people, I didn’t see Kilkenny winning their semi-final but they were ultra sharp and clearly improved – improving? – in hammering a Clare team that had drawn three times with Limerick.

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Clare looked jaded but if the Munster campaign took that much out of them, has it done the same to Limerick? That’s a key question. How much did they invest in the provincial round-robin and might they regret going as hard after the round four fixture in Ennis?

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I know they rested a couple of players but that only increased the workload for everyone else. If you want effectively to sit out a round, make plenty of changes.

This is a vital difference between the provinces. In Munster you almost have to concede one of the matches to rest players. In Leinster with its wildly varying depth there are a couple of games where a team can take it easy. This was fairly obvious in the All-Ireland semi-finals.

Limerick did well to edge out Galway but it would be hard to say they were improving. Both Galway and Kilkenny looked fresher and that has to be an advantage for Brian Cody’s team going into the weekend.

Against Clare, they were vastly improved in their use of possession and their tackling was outstanding. Clare looked ordinary and had great difficulty in getting the ball away: TJ Reid’s flick to dispossess Conor Cleary at the Hill 16 End.

I had glimpsed that sharpness in Parnell Park but after another couple of matches, was inclined to put it down to Dublin’s deficiencies given how mediocre the Kilkenny displays became. But maybe that oscillation in form had more to do with the injury to Huw Lawlor than the team as a collective.

Lawlor is a huge player for them and I think will pick up Aaron Gillane. He, Mikey Butler and Paddy Deegan are a very solid base at the back.

The one thing we know about them is that they will turn up. They improved for the semi-final and will kick on from that.

Where are Limerick? Well, they’ve beaten everyone and survived a crisis against Galway and did it without Cian Lynch. How would Kilkenny do without TJ Reid? It’s a fair testament to the power of Limerick. Apart from a big performance against Cork on the first day, their performances have been measured rather than spectacular.

That can be partly traced to Lynch’s injury. The news that he won’t play any role in the final doesn’t really disrupt Limerick, as he’s been out for so long. I felt he struggled when he came on in the semi-final and the reported ankle injury since isn’t an unusual complication of injury-hampered running because of hamstring trouble.

Peter Casey’s availability as an impact sub is a plus for Limerick, as he appears to have put in a good block of training, even if he doesn’t have 70 minutes in him yet and looked in good shape coming on in the semi-final.

They also have the experience of 2019 and the defeat by Kilkenny. That can be looked at in two ways.

On one hand, Kilkenny, who have always been more comfortable against big, athletic sides than more technical teams, will bring the same energy and aggression, which forced Limerick into errors and panic, reflected in an inordinate number of wides.

On the other, Limerick had romped through a Munster final and had four weeks off. They got caught and played badly. So, this is the opposition they have been wanting to take on for three years.

Kilkenny have also been beaten twice in Leinster and it’s hard to believe that they’ve grown out of nowhere because of the four weeks training between the provincial final and the All-Ireland semi-final.

They will be strongly challenged at midfield and in attack because the Limerick back eight is formidable. Mike Casey was caught for a high ball that gave Galway their goal and that is a concern but it was only the fourth goal they had conceded in six championship matches.

It would still be a surprise for me to see Kilkenny winning but not as big a surprise as it would have been a few weeks ago. Limerick’s form over the past couple of years, though, has been unarguable and they deserve to be favourites.